9 Questions For [66th Grammy noms] Culture
Questions For The Culture
The National Academy of Recording Arts and Science unveiled their nominations for the 66th annual Grammy Awards, but who will be the most victorious and who was snubbed from greatness?
BY HARPSICHORD
NOVEMBER 10, 2023
Digital illustration of the Gramophone.
“Questions For The Culture” is a column series that appears on the Hot Takes page for Harpsichord Zine. It asks about and tries to dissect curiosities about the hottest topics being discussed during a significant music event.
On November 10, fans and critics of the music industry woke up– or sat at their computers at work– as the National Academy of Recording Arts and Science unveiled their nominations for the 66th annual Grammy Awards taking place on February 4, 2024. The nominations consisted of the usual nominees who weren’t a surprise, some that were a shock, and of course, snubs. But what do these nominations mean for what may happen at the 2024 awards?
Question 1
Will SZA, the most nominated artist, walk away with the most trophies?
2023 has been a massive year for SZA, who earned nine Grammy nominations to cap it off. She’s nominated for three of the Top Four big prizes, including Album of the Year for her 10 week No. 1 smash, SOS, and Record and Song of the Year for the No. 1 global hit, “Kill Bill.” She faces some stiff competition in all those categories. Even her collection of R&B noms, which are usually shoo-in’s for mainstream pop&B acts like herself, seem to be stacked. Aside from “Kill Bill,” four more songs from SOS received honors: “Ghost In The Machine” (with Phoebe Bridgers) for Best Pop Duo/Group Performance, “Love Language” for Best Traditional R&B Performance, “Snooze” for Best R&B Song, and “Low” for Best Melodic Rap Performance. Looking at the likely, SZA could either sweep and go home with an armload of gramaphones, or she may just get “consolation prizes” and completely get stiff armed in the major categories. Predicting the future now, SZA may only walk home with Best Progressive R&B Album, as other awards committees have been snubbing her commercial success left and right.
Question 2
…Or will Billie Eilish, Olivia Rodrigo, or Taylor Swift be the 66th annual Grammy darling?
Unlike SZA, Olivia Rodrigo, Billie Eilish, and Taylor Swift have all won major at previous Grammys. Taylor is going for her fourth Album of the Year win for Midnights which is one of the top selling albums of 2022 and 2023. It’s unlikely for her to get another W in that column, because the Grammys seem like they are going with the notion of spreading love. However, Taylor’s “Anti-Hero” which won big at the 2023 VMAs, seem like the safe option for Best Pop Solo Performance and possibly Song of the Year. Taylor Swift might leave the award show empty handed or with just one to three wins. Best Pop Vocal Album seems like a sure win to ease a major blow.
Meanwhile, Olivia Rodrigo who is also up for Best Pop Solo Performance, Record and Song of the Year (“Vampire”) and Album of the Year and Best Pop Vocal Album (Guts) could be a strong representative for pop rock music. Olivia Rodrigo also has a nomination for Best Rock Song (“Ballad of a Homeschool Girl”) alongside her main producer, Daniel Nigro, who is nominated for Producer of the Year, Non-Classical. However, Olivia may find herself in the same predicted boat as Taylor Swift, either getting completely shut out or taking home just one.
With just one song, Billie Eilish could experience one of the most victorious nights. “What Was I Made For” generated a lot of hype thanks to being the introspective ballad of Barbie The Movie. It’s also nominated for Best Pop Solo Performance, SOTY, and ROTY. At this point a second Oscar seems to be on lock for Billie Eilish, and so does the Grammy for Best Song Written for Visual Media. The Grammys tend to go for the more emotional tracks, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Billie Eilish sweeps her categories.
Question 3
Will Nicki Minaj, Lana Del Rey, and Miley Cyrus win their first ever Grammys after providing lengthy careers full of hits and cult favorites?
All three ladies have never won a Grammy before and this might be the chance for the Recording Academy to knock out three birds with one stone. Nicki Minaj is often ridiculed by hip hop and pop fans for not having one on her trophy shelf. Minaj has been highly critical of the Grammys in the past and has even gone as far as to suggest that the entity has her blacklisted. With the success of “Barbie World” which is attached to the critically acclaimed Barbie soundtrack, she could finally get what’s been alluding her for some time. It would be fitting for the first to come with something attached to her brand. She may have the best shot in the Best Rap Song category, rather than Best Song Written for Visual Media. Her chance of winning a Grammy this year: maybe 20%.
It’s hard to believe that Lana Del Rey has not taken home a Grammy– even in an alternative category. She’s up for Best Alternative Music Performance (as well as SOTY for “A&W”) and Best Alternative Music Album (Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd), but faces polarizing votes against the Phoebe Bridgers-fronted supergroup boygenius (The Record), who are also up for AOTY like herself. Lana sees herself nominated alongside Grammy darling Jon Batiste in Best Pop Duo/Group Performance (“Candy Necklace”). Batiste could even provide the ladies a roadblock in AOTY, as he previously won the category in 2022. Will the Grammys knight her as the alternative superstar of the night? Or will they go with more familiar territory to make a statement against her everlasting popularity? There’s about a 60% chance of her winning at least one.
Miley Cyrus’s nominations for ROTY, SOTY, and Best Pop Solo Performance weren’t at all a surprise because “Flowers” happens to be one of the biggest songs of 2023, and a career defining comeback moment for Cyrus. A win in one of the Major 4 categories seems likely, but again the competition is stacked. What had been a surprise is the nomination for Endless Summer Vacation in AOTY as critics and fans alike didn’t pay the album much attention. It seems unlikely to take home that prize, but provides the best alternative to Swift’s Midnights and Rodrigo’s Guts in the Best Pop Vocal Album category. Her likelihood of taking home at least one Grammy: About a 50% chance.
Question 4
Will Victoria Monét or Coco Jones be the R&B representative to win, or will SZA cast them out?
Coco Jones has had a massive mainstream debuting era with an EP that’s been all the buzz in the R&B scene. Her Best New Artist nomination is not too shabby, as she has a BET Awards win under her belt for campaign season. Best New Artist does not seem like far of a reach for Jones on Grammy night. What I Didn’t Tell You is also up for Best R&B Album, while “ICU” has Best R&B Performance and Song to look forward to. However, because Coco Jones is so new to the scene, Grammy voters could go with the familiars like SZA’s “Kill Bill” and “Snooze” in the R&B Performance and Song categories respectively. If anything, Coco Jones will have the highest chances of winning Best Traditional R&B Performance as she’s featured on Babyface’s “Simple,” as the legendary producer-songwriter is familiar with name recognition and has his own Best R&B Album nod for the compilation LP, Girls Night Out.
Then there’s Robert Glasper, who already has five Grammy trophies, and dominates in R&B categories. He could stifle matters in Best R&B Performance and Song (“Back To Love”).
After being told by MTV that she was “too early in her career,” Victoria Monét earned seven nominations, surprisingly making her the second most nominated artist of the night. Due to its massive success, “On My Mama” slid in the Record of the Year category as well as Best R&B Song. A win in Best Traditional R&B Performance does not feel like a far reach as “Hollywood” features the esteemed Earth, Wind, & Fire, and her two year old daughter, Hazel, who becomes the youngest Grammy nominee in the award’s history. Jaguar II may not have received an AOTY nod, but it’s a frontrunner for Best R&B Album (not having to worry about SZA’s SOS which is in the Best Progressive R&B Album category).
Question 5
Who will make Africa proud: Burna Boy, Tyla, Davido, or Ayra Starr?
In terms of African music in 2023, all four of these artists have made impactful statements on a global scale. Burna Boy’s nomination in Best African Music Performance for “City Boys” comes as a major win for sampling, and he has a chance to win Best Melodic Rap Performance alongside 21 Savage on “Sittin’ On Top of the World.” Ayra Starr had a major breakthrough moment with “Rush.” But it’s amapiano music from South Africa that made the biggest impression on the scene in 2023 with Davido’s “Unavailable” leading the way, and Tyla’s “Water” being the freshest on Grammy voters’ minds as it continues to soar up the charts as a viral moment.
Question 6
Where the hell is RAYE?
This is one of the worst Grammy snubs of the year. RAYE had all the ingredients to be a Grammy dark horse– particularly with her storyline of being an independent artist obtaining a hit single through “Escapism.” Her album, My 21st Century Blues discussed personal issues such as sexual assault and body dysmorphia, while asserting the performer as a strong individual. “Escapism” seemed to be the type of fodder the committee would appreciate for ROTY and SOTY, and even if it got canceled out, there is Best Pop Duo/Group Performance. A missed opportunity indeed, especially considering her campaign run of My 21st Century Symphony. (with The Heritage Orchestra) [Live at the Royal Albert Hall] which showcased her talent to perform.
Question 7
Will Ice Spice win Best New Artist?
She has a 30% chance of taking home the award, but compared to other efforts provided by Coco Jones, Victoria Monét (second most nominated artist of the night), and Jelly Roll (who recently provided a sermon like speech after winning at the CMA Awards) she doesn’t have the full gusto to sway voters. Not to mention, her debut album hasn’t dropped yet to make that sway. Then there is Gracie Abrams, who has the support of opening for Olivia Rodrigo on tour.
Question 8
Can Rihanna fend off the Barbie Soundtrack?
There was a quick rumor that Rihanna might receive a nomination for “Lift Me Up” in a major category since it’s unlike any other song the pop hitmaker is known for. Her sole nomination comes in the Best Song Written For Visual Media category, and it’s up against four hits from Barbie. Billie Eilish seems like her strongest competition, but the votes could be split amongst Dua Lipa’s “Dance The Night” (as she’s rolling out her third studio album) and Nicki Minaj and Ice Spice’s very popular “Barbie World.” Surprisingly, Rihanna has about a 40% chance of winning the Grammy for a song that’s an ode to the late great actor, Chadwick Boseman.
Question 9
Did the Rap categories get it correct?
Yes and no…
The Grammys seem to have a love-hate relationship in what is popular amongst mainstream rap fans. Nicki Minaj and Ice Spice’s nomination for “Barbie World” is deserved as it was one of the biggest rap crossover records. Coi Leray’s nomination for “Players” is a welcomed surprise in Best Rap Performance as the song had its own moment, and with a sample of “The Message” during the 50th year of hip hop nonetheless. Doja Cat’s “Attention” marked a transitional statement for the artist being viewed as a rapper, and seems like a frontrunner for Best Melodic Rap Performance moreso than Best Rap Song. “Paint The Town Red” which is the better performing hit of the two, ends up in Best Pop Solo Performance. Missing amongst women nominees who had impactful records Latto and Cardi B with “Put It On Da Floor Again” and Sexyy Red, who has been a force as a newcomer.
The Grammys are still making it their mission to recognize rap music that may not have had huge mainstream moments, but resonated with the gatekeepers of the genre’s integrity. Killer Mike’s nominations sort of come as a surprise, but he received much critical acclaim, as did Nas (King’s Disease III receives the Best Rap Album nod). J. Cole is already a Grammy winner, so his nomination alongside Lil Durk for “All My Life” makes sense as that song smashed globally.
Then there is the case of Drake and 21 Savage, and Travis Scott, who are both popular and critically acclaimed in the scenes of rap. Her Loss being nominated is not much of a surprise as it had the community talking, while Scott’s Utopia is regarded as a redemption piece of sorts, as it sold very well. Metro Boomin’ is up for Producer of the Year, Non-Classical, and has the highest chance of winning in that category thanks to the accolades he’s received from publications. His sole rap nomination for Album (Heroes & Villains) could see him victorious.
All that being said, rap’s most major snub: Gunna. “Fukumean” is one of the genre’s most successful this year, and even provides a redemption arc. But what we know about The Grammys is, a project can resonate with the streets but not with the nominating committee. Should there be more of a distinction between O.G. rap and New Gen rap moving forward so that all facets of rap receive their just due? If R&B can have categories distinguishing “traditional” from “progressive,” why can’t the rap committee follow suit?
